A Timeline Of The TikTok Ban – What’s Next?

Since its rise to prominence, TikTok has revolutionized the digital landscape, reshaping how audiences consume content and how businesses engage with them. From viral challenges to the a more open algorithm, TikTok has become a cornerstone of paid media and creator strategies, particularly for brands aiming to capture the attention of Gen Z and Millennial consumers. However, TikTok’s journey in the U.S. has been marked by concerns over national security and data privacy, leading to years of legal battles, political scrutiny, and regulatory debates. The TikTok ban saga serves as a case study in the intersection of national security, global tech policy, and digital marketing. For advertisers, it’s a reminder of the importance of adaptability and the potential risks of over-reliance on any single platform. 

In this article, we’ll explore TikTok’s challenges in the U.S. and their profound implications for paid media, influencer marketing, and the broader digital ecosystem – AND provide a POV on how advertisers and brands can respond.

Jump to:

• A Brief Timeline of Events
• Impacts on Digital & Creator Marketing 
• What Next? Our Recommendation For Advertisers

A Brief Timeline of Events

2019-2020: Early Concerns and Investigations

• October 2019: The U.S. government initiates a national security review of TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, following its acquisition of the U.S.-based app Musical.ly. Concerns about data security and potential Chinese government access to user data spark the investigation.
  
• December 2019: TikTok becomes the second-most downloaded app in the world, according to data from analytics firm SensorTower.
  
• July 2020: President Donald Trump announces that he is considering a ban on TikTok, citing it as a potential response to China’s alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  
• August 2020: President Trump signs an executive order aiming to ban TikTok unless ByteDance sells its U.S. operations. This prompts negotiations with U.S.-based companies, including Oracle and Walmart, to purchase a stake in TikTok’s U.S. business.
  

2021: Shift in Administration

• June 2021: President Biden rescinds Trump’s executive orders but directs the Commerce Department to evaluate apps linked to foreign adversaries, including TikTok. The administration focuses on broader regulatory measures rather than an outright ban.
  

2022: Growth and Worries

• April 2022: TikTok becomes the most downloaded app in the world, beating out Instagram, according to SensorTower data.
  
• June 2022: Employees of ByteDance have repeatedly accessed nonpublic information about U.S. TikTok users, according to leaked recordings from over 80 internal meetings. In response, TikTok issues a generalized statement emphasizing its commitment to user security without directly addressing the allegations in the BuzzFeed report.
  
• December 2022: FBI Director, Chris Wray, expresses national security concerns regarding TikTok, warning that Chinese government officials could exploit the app’s recommendation algorithm to conduct influence operations or manipulate content.
  

2023: Escalation of Security Concerns

• March 2023: TikTok CEO, Shou Zi Chew, testifies before Congress. Lawmakers express bipartisan concerns about data privacy and TikTok’s potential role in misinformation. The testimony fails to alleviate national security fears.
  
• June 2023: Montana becomes the first U.S. state to pass legislation banning TikTok entirely, effective January 2024. Legal challenges immediately follow, questioning the ban’s constitutionality.
  

2024: Legislation and Ongoing Debate

• May 2024: TikTok and ByteDance file a lawsuit against the U.S. government, challenging legislation that would require ByteDance to divest its ownership of TikTok or face a nationwide ban. 
  
• October 2024: A federal appeals court upholds a law enabling the government to ban apps deemed national security risks. TikTok’s future in the U.S. remains uncertain.
  
• December 2024: Discussions intensify as lawmakers consider options, including forcing ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations. Meanwhile, advocacy groups warn that a ban could stifle freedom of expression and economic innovation.
  
• December 2024: A federal appeals court backs the legislation on Dec. 6th. TikTok and ByteDance file an emergency injunction on Dec. 9, asking the Supreme Court to review the legislation before January. The same federal appeals court denies the platform’s emergency injunction on Dec. 13th.
  
• December 2024: During a press conference, President-elect Donald Trump says he has a “warm spot” for TikTok, as he believes it helped him connect with young voters.
  
• January 2025: The Supreme Court hears oral arguments on January 10th regarding whether the law to force Bytedance to divest from TikTok was a violation of the First Amendment.
  
• January 2025: The Supreme Court to release opinions on the case (which may or may not include a ruling) Wednesday, January 15th.
  

Impacts on Digital & Creator Marketing 

Economic Repercussions:

TikTok supports 224,000 U.S. jobs and contributes $24.2 billion annually to the GDP. A ban would disrupt this ecosystem, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses reliant on TikTok for marketing.

Influencer marketing on TikTok, a cornerstone of many brands’ digital strategies, would face potential collapse. Advertisers may struggle to replicate TikTok’s unique engagement metrics on alternative platforms.

Shifts in Content Strategies:

Brands may pivot to Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, or other video-first platforms to compensate. However, these alternatives may not replicate TikTok’s targeting and cultural resonance with younger audiences.

The absence of TikTok’s unique algorithm could hinder the ability to achieve viral success, which many advertisers have leveraged for cost-efficient campaigns.

Broader Digital Advertising Trends:

The ban underscores the vulnerability of platform-dependent marketing strategies. It highlights the need for brands to diversify their paid media portfolios.

The ongoing uncertainty creates hesitation among advertisers, reducing the efficiency of ad spend during critical retail periods like Black Friday.

A reduction in platform diversity may have an inverse effect on costs to run paid media on other social platforms, potentially increasing CPM averages.

What Next? Our Recommendation For Advertisers

As January 19, 2025, approaches, our teams are closely monitoring developments surrounding the potential TikTok ban, including the potential for an extension of the January 19 deadline. In light of this uncertainty, we strongly recommend brands currently active on TikTok take proactive measures to minimize risks and remain agile. Below are key steps we advise in preparation for a potential ban this Sunday:

1. Pause Advertising Efforts:
   To avoid unforeseen investment complications within the TikTok app, we recommend pausing all advertising efforts by January 18, 2025. Should an eleventh-hour update occur, campaigns can be reactivated quickly.
   
2. Secure Performance Data:
   Preemptively pull all performance data from TikTok to ensure you retain insights and results, even if access to the platform is restricted.
   
3. Establish a Contingency Plan:
   Be prepared to reallocate budgets to adjacent platforms that align with your business goals, target audiences, and creative resources. Our team can create tailored media plans to address the unique needs of each campaign and ensure a seamless transition.
   
4. Adapt Creator Content:
   If your strategy includes organic creator content, have a backup plan for distributing that content across other channels. For creators with audiences limited to TikTok, ensure you have a termination clause in place to manage these partnerships effectively.